Jaam Maud

International Affairs

Global Economy

Sudan's Economy: From Breadbasket Dreams to Breaking Point

How civil war transformed one of Africa's most promising economies into the world's largest humanitarian crisis in less than two years

By Sumair Ahmed Mahar

Dec. 8, 2025

Civil war has devastated Sudan's economy and displaced millions. Getty Images

Sudan possessed 84 million hectares of fertile agricultural land, substantial gold reserves, and a strategic geographic position linking Africa to the Middle East. By every measure, it had the ingredients for economic prosperity. Today, it faces the world's largest humanitarian crisis as civil war has sent its economy into catastrophic free fall.

Since April 2023, fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has devastated what was once considered one of Africa's most promising economies. The speed and severity of the collapse offers a stark illustration of how quickly conflict can obliterate decades of economic development.

The Velocity of Collapse

−37.5% Sudan's GDP contraction in 2023, marking one of the fastest economic collapses in modern history

To contextualize this figure: during their prolonged civil wars, Yemen and Syria experienced annual GDP contractions of approximately 5%. Sudan's economic implosion is occurring at more than seven times that rate. The country's gross domestic product now stands at roughly $50 billion, with production grinding to a virtual halt across nearly all economic sectors.

Anatomy of Economic Destruction

The Production Shutdown

When hostilities erupted in Khartoum in April 2023, the capital transformed overnight from an economic hub into an active battlefield. Manufacturing facilities shuttered, commercial offices emptied, and markets closed indefinitely. Workers fled en masse, supply chains fractured, and the entire machinery of daily economic activity simply ceased functioning.

Agricultural Devastation

Eighty percent of Sudan's population derives its livelihood from agriculture, yet the country cultivates only one-fifth of its potentially arable land. The fertile Al Jazirah region, once envisioned as the foundation for Sudan becoming the "breadbasket of the Arab world," became a primary theater of military operations. When floods struck in summer 2024, they destroyed what little agricultural production remained. Sudan went from harboring ambitions of feeding neighboring nations to struggling desperately to feed its own population.

157.9% Annual inflation rate, effectively doubling prices within twelve months

Essential commodities—food, fuel, and medicine—became financially inaccessible to ordinary citizens as prices skyrocketed while household incomes evaporated. The currency reforms that had shown promise during the transitional period collapsed entirely as the conflict rendered conventional economic policymaking impossible.

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The Fragmentation of Governance

Two rival military factions now attempt to administer separate territorial zones, each claiming governmental authority. The Rapid Support Forces extract revenues from gold mining operations, while the Sudanese Armed Forces collect transit fees from oil pipelines. Meanwhile, actual state institutions have disintegrated.

Tax collection has ceased. Public services have vanished. Whatever limited financial resources exist flow toward weapons procurement rather than social welfare or economic development. Sudan no longer possesses a functioning state in any meaningful sense.

Humanitarian Catastrophe

Critical

Over 30 million people—representing two-thirds of Sudan's entire population—now require humanitarian assistance as the economic collapse has rendered basic goods unaffordable for most families.

Famine on an Unprecedented Scale

More people currently experience famine conditions in Sudan than in all other countries combined. Over 24 million face acute hunger, with 635,000 enduring outright starvation. This crisis is entirely anthropogenic—the direct result of agricultural destruction, mass displacement, and systematically blocked humanitarian aid deliveries.

The World's Largest Displacement Crisis

Nearly 13 million Sudanese have fled their homes—the largest displacement crisis globally. That represents 13 million workers, students, farmers, and merchants scattered across the region and beyond. An estimated 5.2 million jobs have simply disappeared. Poverty rates have likely surged from 66% to over 90% of the population.

"The tragedy is this didn't have to happen. Sudan's agricultural potential remains intact. The gold deposits haven't disappeared. The strategic location hasn't changed. But war destroys the trust, institutions, and social fabric that make economies function."

Reversed Progress on Debt Relief

Sudan had been making substantial progress on international debt relief through programs with the IMF and World Bank. The outbreak of war terminated all such initiatives. IMF support ended abruptly, and Sudan found itself severed from global financial systems precisely when international assistance became most critical.

Sectoral Analysis

Key Economic Sectors

• Oil and Natural Resources: Sudan lost the majority of its oil reserves when South Sudan gained independence, but continued earning pipeline transit fees. The conflict has severely disrupted these revenues.
• Gold Mining: Operations continue, but profits fund military operations rather than national development or public welfare.
• Banking System: Non-performing loans jumped from under 5% to over 10%. The Central Bank relocated to Port Sudan, creating a fragmented financial infrastructure.
• Health and Education: Nineteen million children risk losing access to education. Medical facilities face direct attacks and healthcare professionals have fled en masse.

Prospects for Recovery

Even the most optimistic economic projections suggest merely 0.5% growth in 2025—and that assumes an immediate cessation of hostilities. Yet both military factions continue to believe outright victory remains achievable, while foreign powers persist in supplying weapons and material support.

Regional Implications

Sudan's economic collapse reverberates throughout East Africa. Refugees flood into Chad, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt—nations already confronting their own economic and political challenges. Trade routes have been severed, complicating economic activity across the entire region.

The International Response Gap

The United Nations requested $2.7 billion for humanitarian operations in Sudan during 2024. Funding commitments fell drastically short of this target. The United States reduced its assistance by 83%, forcing the closure of 80% of emergency response centers. Conflict generates humanitarian needs, yet the security risks make international donors increasingly reluctant to provide aid—creating a devastating cycle.

Recovery won't be quick. It begins with peace—with guns falling silent. Until then, the economy will continue its downward spiral.

The fundamental question isn't whether Sudan possesses the capacity to recover—the agricultural potential endures, the mineral wealth remains, the strategic position hasn't changed. The question is whether the international community and Sudan's own political and military actors will provide the opportunity for such recovery to begin.

Sumair Ahmed Mahar is an aspiring finance and economics student writing on international affairs and economic development. This article appears on maudjaam.blogspot.com and is published for informational and educational purposes.